AAPL, Market and Twitter

Dear readers,

This is my first blog for year 2013, and I wish everyone

A Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year!

Today is Friday, Jan. 11th, 2013, the eighth trading session for the year. We have had huge market rally with all major indexes closing near or at their five-year highs: SPX closed at 1,472, almost unchanged; Nasdaq at 3,125.63, up 3.87; Dow at 13,488.4, up 17.3. A few recent strong sectors were weak seen in industrial, banks, and biotech; some technology stocks had good days led by FB, NFLX, RIMM, and BIDU. Meanwhile, some retailer stocks have showed lackluster action, such as LULU, TIF, M, and VFC. The rotation seems to be running out candidates soon.

WFC pulled back some after reporting its earning, similar to AA‘s post earning price action. To me, it’s somewhat warning sign as they both were sold off on the earning news after big run-ups.

Due to tremendous risk involved with trading during the earning season and option expiration week, please read those golden rules before your stocks report earnings: http://chartpattern.com/10_golden_rules.html

Ironically, if you’re a AAPL trader, its price action doesn’t make you feel that we are in such a bullish market. It might be one of the reasons that some traders including me are inclined to feel less optimistic about this market as AAPL closed at 520, near its four-month low.

Since I pointed out AAPL‘s toppy action on my chart back in Sept., it has been in a strong downtrend; therefore, it has automatically become the stock for me to short the most of time since then. You can see my AAPL daily chart with notes at the bottom of the page.

Just like many AAPL fans, I have tried to find reasons to believe that AAPL could rally with the market. I went to its stores and checked the business there, and I always saw busy crowds, especially the one in the Central Park in NYC during my New Year vacation. Indeed, a few AAPL store pictures I posted on Twitter seemed to have caused some upside moves before it reversed down. (I assume so, so please don’t laugh ;))

A few times when AAPL had a sharp bounce with wild gyration moves, I warned and even posted this proverb: One-day of sunshine doesn’t make it a summer. Gladly, I was told that my AAPL comments have saved some traders from being trapped. However, I also got bashed by a few traders who disagreed with me sometimes. They simply fall in love with the stock despite its bearish action.  They ignored such wisdom: “Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.”

I noticed that some well-respected traders don’t post their trades on Twitter, and I thought it is very wise. Not everyone has to trade everyday or day trade. When I used to post entries or exits during the trading hours, I received many replies asking questions about my trades, including basic knowledge for trading. It was very stressful and even opportunity costing because HFT (or High Frequency Trading) dominates trading world and it often causes sharp and fast mores with wild swings on many stocks. To me, nice trading requires good observation with clear thinking!

Now I tend to follow Jesse Livermore‘s wisdom: “I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I don’t tell people to buy or sell any particular stocks.”

There are various trading methods and strategies involved with different trading plans and time frames for traders. Any one of them can work out well as long as traders are skilled with good risk management. I don’t follow others’ trades, so their market views are more important than their entry points or exits. Copying others’ trades eventually leads to failure in trading if not understanding the reasons behind.

I appreciate so many wonderful people on Twitter who have been supportive and encouraging. Sometimes different views on stocks suggested by others have helped me stay objective instead of being stubborn; and also, they have made me feel that it is worth spending time to do well-illustrated charts or write blogs about my market view even though my eyes might hurt after spending long hours on the computer.

In retrospect, it is interesting to recall how I started with Twitter!

In the past two years, I kept hearing about Twitter being mentioned by my favorite characters on CNBC.  Last year in March, my sister came to U.S. and lived with me for a few months. I was surprised that my quiet doctor sister enjoyed sharing her pictures and posts passionately on Chinese Twitter – Weibo by SINA. I then realized that Twitter had become such a popular social media place.

I signed up with Twitter in April, 2012, and started sharing my posts. I easily found a few well-known/popular traders to follow. But in the first week, one of them who is well known for his ego blocked me on a day when I posted opposite comments. What? Is this how I got treated by someone when I have just began to tweet? – That harsh experience has taught me that I needed to give new followers or chances before rejecting them. (My suggestion for new Twitter users: pick a favorite avatar for your profile instead of an egghead for credibility purpose.)

I love this motto by William Arthur Ward:

“Before you speak, listen.
Before you write, think.
Before you criticize, wait.
Before you quit, try.”

To me, Twitter is a great place for traders to share and learn from each others, but it’s not for making competition or bashing others in order to gain followers or to prove one’s superiority. Many of us as traders also enjoy sharing our passion in other areas in life, such as food, photos, or sports. But sometimes it’s uneasy to deal with unreasonable trolls on the internet. Today I burst into tears after I tried to put up with someone who kept attacking me as I made bearish comments on AAPL. It was not first time I dealt with it. Finally I had to push the “BLOCK” button, my second time. – Yes, it took me a while to do it for I prefer to be a classy lady who has tough mind with a tender heart. In real life, I never let negativity bother me for too long although I can be sensitive once for a while for being a woman.

I do my best to stay balanced by following Tao De Ting‘s teaching:

“Displaying self-righteousness, one reveals vanity.
Praising the self, one earns no respect.
Exaggerating achievements, one cannot long endure.”

I really enjoy people’s posts which are kind, objective, humorous, entertaining, educational, or informative. I smile every time when I see cute kids’ pictures posted by others. As the number of my followers grows on Twitter, I feel more responsible to bring real value and objective comments to the stream. I believe in treating others the way I want to be treated, and love everyone around me, and people in the world.

People first, then money.” - Suzie Oman says.

Thanks for reading and understanding, and wishing you best luck on trading! – May Peace, Love, and Prosperity be with us Forever!

Here is my AAPL one-year daily chart with notes at all major turning points:Chart of AAPL daily chart with major notes 1-11-2013

About these ads

About Angela Zhou @z8angela on Twitter

I am a full-time swing/day trader trading stocks & options. I got into stock trading/investing since the internet bubble in 1998. I am optimistic in life & objective in trading. The purpose of this blog site is for me to share my trading experience and market view with others. I may write something about life experience and living, too. My motto is: A Great Mind Becomes a Great Fortune. I love people and life, and I appreciate beauty in everything. Thank you for viewing!
This entry was posted in Market and Trading, Trading and Life, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

34 Responses to AAPL, Market and Twitter

  1. Alan-Michael says:

    Fame is crippling , no matter the source. Though I am in no position to give you wisdom on anything, I’ll humbly offer a small reminder: take care of yourself as a trader first, and as a mentor second. People learn far more from your example than they ever could from your words. As more people look to you, there will be an ever-growing pressure to provide them with *something*. In turn, this can often affect the way you think..and I imagine the way you trade.

    While you are in the process of handling a growing flock of followers/disciples, I thought it would be prudent to give you that small reminder. Most decent human beings feel a greater responsibility to others than themselves, and you certainly seem like a caring individual. That being said, a wise teacher offers few words, and fewer answers. Speak sparingly, when you feel so inclined, and when asked a question, leave a question in return. Above finding the right answers, people must learn the art of asking the right questions. A wise teacher, like some of my past Sifus/Senseis, teach the right questions which lead to the right answers.

    Good read!

    • Thank you so much for taking time to write such nice feedback which is truly wise and enlightening! My thoughts were provoked by your keep understanding and great advice. In fact, I have thought about taking time off from being on Twitter or in Chat room. In the past, I had some best trading time when I was away from any social contact and when I was focusing on my own trading only. Or writing blogs is a good way to go…

      Best luck to your trading!

      Angela :)

  2. Maisie says:

    @Angela, you are a *great trader*. i too used to post entries and exits and then one time, i think i put someone off what ended up being a really good trade. this person did *not* message me, but i worked it out from his tweets. i stopped posting trades after that. not everyone knows enough about trading or is strong enough in themselves to see other ppls trades and still stick to their own plan. so it’s easy to have an unwanted impact on someone else on twitter. what i find very valuable about your posts is your *logic*. i learn from the way you *think*. so, thank you very much for sharing! but i think Alain-Michel is right – take care of your trading first. and too – i constantly question whether or not it even makes sense to post anything at all on twitter as – are we not just feeding the bots the information they need to design more strategies to fade us then? i just got followed by someone who – apparently – *makes bots*. why the heck am i going to share my strategy with this bot-maker? i’m trying to outsmart him! i am wondering about how twitter really fits into trading and actually all social media including chatrooms! how the heck do i know who is in *there*? or who runs them? what do *they* do with my trades? maybe the best way to find a higher purpose with trading is to accumulate a lot of $$ and give to charity :) so Angela, i will continue to read and learn from you, but if you take time off for any reason i will assume it is to nurture your trading, and always remain grateful to you for what i have learned and having an example of a Great Girl Trader :)

    • Thanks for taking time to wrote your comments! I truly understand your point of view since the human natures are same in most of us, and we always have to deal with them. Being on Twitter can make ourselves to grow stronger in person since it’s complex world to be in. Tao Do Ting has been a great teaching for me to follow in that aspect. Good luck on trading!

      Angela

  3. recession101 says:

    i enjoy your comments, its very resourceful. I shorted aapl at $703.38 (believed it or not) but I covered way too early :-( for those that still believe and hoping aapl will move higher well that is their poison. unfortunately, I do not have any aapl short at this time, as mentioned above, I covered way too early. keep up the good work.

  4. darrbr says:

    Angela, your insight and wisdom are worth heeding. Please don’t stop posting your opinions which are based on facts not emotion such as those “in love” with AAPL. I short APPL too when it peaks without any emotion and thanks to you, remembered to use trailing stops to cover my backside.
    Because you are a day-trader you are in tune with the market and have a good feel of trends. Basically, it is us traders versus the machines and we take crumbs from the big table as we can.

    My thought on your Apple Store experience: just because there were a lot of people in there does not mean they were buying anything. They could have been comparing products then went out and got a Nokia Lumia or other product.

    I share your optimism and my trading methods are my own just as yours are. As the saying goes “there is more than 1 way to skin a cat.” What we are all seeking is consistent returns, more gains than losses on the average. There is no guaranteed method for successful trading only a better probability with one method versus others.

    I especially liked your post about using in-the-money options due to mathematical probability of better success. You cannot argue with mathematics. It is not altered by feelings or begging for a different result.

    Personally, I think you ought to be on a TV show titled “Rational Trading” or something like that. You are photogenic and clever which would make you a successful candidate to be part of such a show.

    Thank you Angela for taking the time to share your thoughts on trading. You are one of the very few people on the internet I give any serious consideration too.

  5. markcs1969@aol.com says:

    Thank You for your comments, very true and informative! I’ve learned that traders need to develope their own trading plan and not follow other traders trades!

  6. Thank you for sharing, for writing, for your time, your grace and your charts.

    The market, the blogosphere and Twitter are better places because of you.

    Sincerely

  7. Doug Gregory says:

    I’ve been around on the Net probably a lot longer than you and getting bashed goes with the territory…It doesn’t bother me in the least. The compliments far outweigh any bashing we get….Keep up the good work!….Doug

  8. Thanks for your comments Angela! Gain strength from all positive reactions, ignore those who bash!

    Sandor.

  9. MarketJunkee says:

    Hey Angela – Markets can be wrong, or else you or i wouldn’t/couldn’t make any money. Markets are dictated by human behavior, which is irrational and driven by fear. People are inherently nervous and at the slight sign of trouble head for the exits. Market also translates high prices into thinking the firm is doing phenomenal (FB, GOOG, AAPL when it was trading at 700) and translates low price into thinking it’s doing horrible and going under (FB etc.). In other words, in the stock market, there is overreaction to every small thing. I know you are not a fundamental trader, but if you study a firm’s B/S, I/S, C/F and performed a SWAT analysis and the firm still comes up strong, then fundamentals will eventually catch up (i.e. 2008/2009, when i was trader at JPM, the market was at 1550, when i could plainly see things were breaking down. In that case, market was indeed wrong and a short made more than sense to me). Point is fundamentals eventually catch up. But you are right, you cannot ignore technicals. When a fundamentally strong firm’s price starts to decline plainly because of fear, it is technicals that can allow you to see whether the firm will go down further so that you are not leaving money on the table when you indeed buy. In other words, technicals can allow you to dictate when to buy and sell, but it is teh fundamentals that attract you to the firm in the first place.

    Anyway, great blog and i look forward to your thoughts.

  10. MarketJunkee says:

    Further, the stock market is the only market i know where the demand curve is upward sloping. Strange!

  11. Alan-Michael says:

    On options: The thing about in-the-money options is that they have a higher delta risk. That is a fancy way of saying that it’ll track the stock’s price movement more closely, thus making it a lot more volatile. The *only* way to trade in the money options is to either accept the price of the option as your loss. Setting a tight stop on an ITM option generally leads to easy losses, regardless if you were right about direction or not.

    OTM options are not nearly as bad as the market makes you think they are. OTM options carry low delta risk, and are also a lot cheaper. Theta is also a non-issue early in the option’s life, as OTM options have a low theta by default. This allows you to not only multiply your games, but makes the option itself a lot less volatile due to its low delta/theta risk. The only major risk with OTM options is, of course, expiration. But in all honesty, expiration is a huge risk with *all* options, ITM or not. Expiration means all that time value priced into the option when you bought it disappears. That’s a loss no matter how you slice it, ITM, DITM, or OTM.

    If you’re conservative on the buy side, use deep in the money options. If you’re fairly good at price targets, use OTM options. Ideally with an option you want to pick a target easily reachable within a given period of time. Buy an option that will be slightly ITM or ATM at that target. That will also be your exit point, or where you trail.

    • Thanks for nice explanations on ITM and OTM option plays, and I tend to agree. I have good experience when using charts to timing my directions well with near the money options. OTM is good for stocks with strong momentum. Nevertheless, it’s all risk management when betting less and make a lot more.
      Angela

  12. boostie66 says:

    Abundant Blessings to You Angela !!
    Your honesty, wisdom and beautiful heart will always guide you towards prosperity and a wonderful life. Keep up the good work.

    in gratitude,

    Pascal

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/AppleTraders

  13. MarkAlan says:

    Once again, you make known what it means to be both a trader and a kind, loving human being. Your market wisdom is far and above television commentaries and many professionals. I have been a follower of yours for nearly six months I have learned more from your subtle “hints” than I have from many books. My trading has grown from frustration to joy – from small earnings to larger earnings – thanks to you.

    You don’t teach by giving direct advice. You teach by pointing the person in the right direction, and if that person truly desires to be a good trader, they will search that path and find the answers. There is no such thing as a free lunch when it comes to trading, and as a relatively new and growing trader, I am amazed at how many people WANT trades handed to them and then fail to thank you for the success. But make one bad recommendation and they will never forget you and be the first to attack and criticize you.

    I have been most impressed with your style and wisdom and the manner in which you teach, I have tried to lead others to your blog site to extract the treasures that you leave here. Sadly, many just don’t want to do the work required to become a great trader. Your personal story is inspiring and it should be a point of reflection for many, that it takes a great deal of work and dedication to become what you have become.

    Bless you and may you live a happy healthy and long life! Your wisdom is ALWAYS welcome in my ears.

    • Mark, thank you so much for writing such nice feedback! I’m so glad you have learned so much in the short period of time. You’re smart and understand what my posts suggested, and you deserve to make good trading due to your effort put out. I myself have to keep learning as market will keep challenge us. Best luck!

      Angela ;)

  14. Thanks Angela for your enjoyable comments about AAPL and other subjects. I think I found the reason for the lack of positive reaction to your pictures of busy Apple stores. It seems that some of your dedicated twitter followers were taking the afternoon off. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0Fpl67p5qk

  15. Zenhunter says:

    Angela, thanks for sharing your thought. I especially enjoy the quotes of wisdom you include which are always a good reminder for readers to stay the course. I like to reciprocate by sharing a story I remind myself when I encounter difficult people.
    ===
    Osho – React from awareness

    Osho : Every person is carrying such a mysterious being but the being is closed to you. Every person can become the door for the divine, any ordinary person is extraordinary. Just behind the surface the mysterious is hidden, but you need a key to open it. And that key is moment-to-moment alert response. Not reaction –response. Reaction is always dead; you do something because he has done something. Response is totally different.

    I will tell you one anecdote.

    Buddha was passing through a village. The people of that village were against him, against his philosophy, so they gathered around him to insult him. They used ugly words, vulgar words. Buddha listened. Ananda, Buddha’s disciple who was with him, got very angry, but he couldn’t say anything because Buddha was listening so silently, so patiently, rather as if he was enjoying the whole thing.

    Then even the crowd became a little frustrated because he was not getting irritated and it seemed he was enjoying. Buddha said, ”Now, if you are finished, I should move – because I have to reach the other village soon. They must be waiting just as you were waiting for me. If you have not told me all the things that you thought to tell me, I will be coming back within a few days, then you can finish it.”

    Somebody from the crowd said, ”But we have been insulting you, we have insulted you. Won’t you react? Won’t you say something?”

    Buddha said, ”That is difficult. If you want reaction from me, then you are too late. You should have come at least ten years ago, because then I used to react. But I am now no longer so foolish. I see that you are angry, that’s why you are insulting me. I see your anger, the fire burning in your mind. I feel compassion for you. This is my response – I feel compassion for you. Unnecessarily you are troubled.

    ”Even if I am wrong, why should you get so irritated? That is not your business. If I am wrong I am going to hell, you will not go with me. If I am wrong I will suffer for it, you will not suffer for it. But it seems you love me so much and you think about me and consider me so much that you are so angry, irritated. You have left your work in the fields and you have come just to say a few things to me. I am thankful.”

    Just when he was leaving he said, ”One thing more I would like to say to you. In the other village I left behind, a great crowd just like you had come there and they had brought many sweets just as a present for me, a gift from the village. But I told them that I don’t take sweets. They took the sweets back. I ask you, what will they do with those sweets?”

    So somebody from the crowd said, ”What will they do? It is easy, there is no need to answer. They will distribute them in the village and they will enjoy.”

    So Buddha said, ”Now what will you do? You have brought only insults and I say I don’t take them. What will you do? I feel so sorry for you. You can insult me, that is up to you. But I don’t take it, that is up to me – whether I take it or not.” Buddha said, ”I don’t take unnecessary things, useless things. I don’t get unnecessarily burdened. I feel compassion for you.”

    This is response. If a person is angry and you are present there, not with your past, you will feel always compassion. Reaction becomes anger, response always is compassion. You will see through the person. It will become transparent that he is angry, he is suffering, he is in misery, he is ill. When someone is in fever you don’t start beating him and asking, ”Why are you having a fever? Why is your body hot? Why have you got a temperature?” You serve the man, you help him to come out of it.

    And when somebody is angry he also is having a temperature, he is in a fever, he is feverish. Why get so angry about it? He is in a mental disease which is more dangerous than any bodily disease, more fatal. So if the wife is angry the husband will feel compassion, he will try in every way to help her to be out of it. This is just mad – that she is angry and you also get angry. This is just mad, insane. You will look at the person, you will feel the misery she is in or he is in, and you will help.

    But if the past comes in then everything goes wrong. And it can happen only if you go deep in meditation, otherwise it cannot happen. Just intellectual understanding won’t help. If you go deep in meditation your wounds will be thrown, a catharsis will happen. You become more and more clear inside, clarity is attained, you become like a mirror. You don’t have any wounds really, so no one can hit them. Then you can look at the person, then you can respond.

    Response is always good, reaction is always bad. Response is always beautiful, reaction is always ugly. Avoid reactions and allow responses. Reaction is from the past, response is here and now. Enough for today.

    Source: ” Vedanta: Seven Steps to Samadhi ” – Osho

    http://www.messagefrommasters.com/Stories/Meditation/React_from_awareness.htm

  16. John says:

    Angela, I just discovered you on Twitter today and this was the first blog posting of yours I have read. I have been trading options on equities for about 2 years now and have a strong trading plan. I have 3 mentors that have taught me well. I must honestly say that your insight into the APPL market is just brilliant. I am truly hoping that you do not let a “few bad apples” spoil what it is that you are bringing to the retail trading community as a whole. I am brand new on twitter (I just started my account today – feel free to follow me if you like @ru4trade) and have followed some of the CNBC guys as well as a couple of other traders but have really yet to set up some strong, like minded, traders on my follow list. I will be posting from time to time and will not list specific entry or exit points but more my bullish or bearish sentiments on the stock and reasoning behind it (including technical analysis). I think so much more can be garnered from that exchange of information vs. just telling someone the exact strikes I am buying a put, call, or spread at. Also, people must be secure in their abilities as traders to be able to hear an opposing point of view on an equity that they trade and gleam knowledge from it. Only the insecure would get angry hearing that someone does not see the set up the same way you do. God bless and PLEASE keep up the great work. I hope to see you on twitter. :)

  17. Welcome to Twitter! I am glad you are so wise and already know what to expect from Twitter. Yes, I followed you back respectfully. Thanks for the comments & nice words!

    Angela

  18. @vs_trader says:

    Happy new year. I have been quietly reading your tweets and views. I have noticed sometimes you get attacks from people who do not necessarily agree with your opinion. I agree with some who say that you are a trader first and therefore it could be best to ignore those trolls. Some wise man has said – never argue with a fool. They will bring you down to their level and then beat you with their experience. Most of us traders here are for sharing opinion. You are correct in quoting Livermore that you are bearish or bullish not recommending (or spoon feeding) entry, exit, stop, target, do this and do that etc. There are two sides of each trade, buyer and seller and without difference of opinion there wont be any market. What you are doing is great and your comments and insights are useful. Twitter has allowed like minded civilised traders to interact with each other. The trolls are there as nuisance but they would not last as trader long and therefore would disappears (but be assured new trolls will take their place :-) )

  19. Bob Schubring says:

    Dear Angela:
    I enjoyed reading these inspiring words of yours today. This was an ugly week for me, as I went in heavily on some AAPL long butterflies and a bull call spread through earnings, and lost 1/5 of my trading capital. So the Lao Tzu quote was very meaningful…my emotions were initially, “give up trading”, and then came the moment of self-realization, that I’d gambled with the bull call spreads and had no factual basis for assuming the stock would rise on earnings. So my new realization, is “keep trading, give up gambling”. A lot of money to pay for a lesson on humility, but at least I learned.

    You seem like a wonderful person and I’m glad to have read this piece…it made a bad week better.

    • Thanks for your compliments! I’m glad you found inspiration. In life, we fell, and then we pick ourselves up again. By the way, Dan Zanger’s story was amazing one, and his April seminar in Vegas often gets booked up quickly. If you’re interested in learning from the master, he is the one.

      Again, keep up, and don’t give up!

      Angela

  20. sunny says:

    Hi Angela,
    I have been sincerely following your tweets n blog. I am happy that your in twitter as we can follow you and learn from you. You have immense knowledge but there are so many questions every novice or intermediate trader has and wishes to learn n know on how to move ahead and become a strong trader. Reading charts as good as you do, become better and better in catching the right moves. My request is if you can share any insight on charts, indicators etc you read that can help any trader to see the far sight and realize which direction to go so that he/she knows that they are learning it right. Your charts are nice and I believe as time passes, reading your charts in detail, will answer lots of our questions.. including questions we are not sure on how to frame it. I am excited for this journey and looking forward to learn. Thanks for the recommendation on books. Hope that helps me to get better in managing the portfolio as it grows.
    Good luck.

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