It Remains a Stock-picking Market Despite a Huge Bounce

When a trader first realizes he is wrong, that it that is time to clear out, take his losses, study the record to determine the cause of the error, and await the next big opportunity. – Jesse Livermore

U.S. market has stalled out after its huge run-up from the mid-November low occurred ten session ago when SPY bounced hard with an outside reversal bar from  its capitulation low of 134.7 where is its fib 61.8% fib retracement level.

After a wild bullish reversal session last Wednesday, SPY finally had a follow-through and broke out its flag with closing price at 142.16 near its 50-day SMA. The price action for last two sessions was whipsawing and also strongly reacted to the fiscal cliff news while the rotation played a big role to support the market so far. 

A few old leaders GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, AAPL continued to dominate the powerful bounce along with some forgotten dogs such as RIMM, GMCR, FB, NFLX.

Meanwhile, some thin-traded leaders with short bases were looking shaky, such as DDD, SSYS, GNRC, CVLT when they pulled back hard after ripping to their year highs with some wide-loose charts, not typical ideal action to see. You can almost sense the end-of-month window dressing action.

On the negative side, Personal income and spending data for October were weaker than expected.  Retailer sales were mostly weaker than estimated as we saw the bearish reversal action in M. TIF, YUM, etc. Additionally, the U.S. fiscal cliff issue persisted.

After huge upside moves have been made for many stocks we follow and for the broad market, I won’t be surprised to see some consolidation  or decent pullback before further upside move continues.

I’ll watch those resistance levels for those stocks:

SPY near 143; GOOG resistance area 700-705; AAPL 590-600, AMZN 250-255; PCLN 665-675. Any rejection from these level on heavy volume could spell some trouble.

Lastly, always be flexible and protect gain without chasing high flyers which were too over extended.

Thanks for viewing and trade safe and well!

There is a REGN chart posted earlier on Stockstwits:

SPY daily chart with note or you can click here: of SPY One-year daily chart with notes11-30-2012

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The Five-day Powerful Market Rally Could Pause or Pull back soon

 Reversal days on the chart signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Wait for the fat pitch when timing is right. There is nothing more important than your emotional balance. – Market Wisdom


– First of all, I wish everyone has had a great Thanksgiving holiday!

What a wild ride we have been through especially since November 6th – the Presidential Election day!

The S&P 500 dropped over 75 points in eight straight sessions since then until it had an outside reversal day on Nov. 16th which was the option expiration Friday with huge volume, ending the two-month correction for at least the short term.

By last Friday on Nov. 23rd, the U.S. market has been up sharply for five days with each index up nearly 1.4%, the S&P 500 closed at 1,409.15, and SPY at 141.35. SPX has retraced back its 50% of total loss occurred in previous two months. The volume has also dried up partially due to the shortened Thanksgiving week.

Among the leaders we keep eyes on: AAPL has bounced well to 572 last Friday from as low as 505 when it had a capitulation selling followed by a bullish reversal bar, now facing near-term resistance level 572-580; GOOG now at 668 has had mild bounce, not too exciting for longs; although benefited from holiday online shopping, AMZN closed at 239.88 or at its 100-day SMA line, and it could challenge its next resistance level near 243 or its 50-day SMA.

IBD resumed its market outlook from Market in Correction to Market in Uptrend. But being a trader, it’s hard to chase a sharp bounce which has been on decreasing volume and the lack of big guys’ participation in rally when SPX seems to face the next resistance area not far from the current level.

The V-shape market bounce can be explained as an elastic band effect: the further it is stretched out, the harder it rebounds. (As a female, I use elastic bands a lot for my hair and I also used to play with them during my childhood)

It’s worth pointing out the following:

Positives notes

– Market has gone through two months of correction from mid September to mid November with the internals improving in most sectors recently; Rotation is going on when beaten down stocks are alternatively bouncing to keep market alive; seasonality should be in favor of a potential Santa Clause rally. Meanwhile, some laggards have been up from their multi-year/month lows, such as RIMM, NOK, MCP, NLFX, FB, etc.

(But I’m not sure it’s an absolute good sign as dogs are flying.)

Negative notes

– The market bounced in a fast and furious fashion with next resistance levels near. Former growth leaders are still weak technically despite their bounce seen in AAPL, GOOG, MLNX, CRUS, IBM, etc. Tax related selling might put pressure on the further recovery. The oscillator now shows an overbought reading from an extreme oversold level six sessions ago when I pointed it out with an illustrated picture in my Twitter picture section: here is the link:

Finally, it’s good to raise stops if you are long, and keep power dry for better entries levels if the market pulls back well. Always be flexible and open-minded with any development of price action.

Best luck on trading!

Here are a few charts to share:

SPY (at 141.35) daily chart with notes:

AAPL (at 571.50) daily chart with notes:

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Happy Thanksgiving! Be loving, giving, and be grateful!

Happy Thanksgiving! Be loving, giving, and be grateful!

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Bearish Reversal for Broad Market on NFP and AAPL Below its 200-day

The expectation, not news itself, is what moves market; the stock market is more an art than a science and far more complex than most people understand.” – Gerald Loeb

Last Friday the U.S. market initially gapped up on the encouraging Job Report, but then stocks immediately reversed down from the higher opening and continued the selloff all the way to the close. The S&P lost 0.9%, and the Nasdaq skidded 1.3%. The broad sell off prevailed in many sectors, such as biotech, oil, material, banks, solar energy and some of technology.

Since I mentioned about possible market upside move in my last blog, the S&P broke out its small consolidation area with a big percentage move Thursday ahead of its Non-form Job Report, but it gave back most of the gain Friday.

Despite Thursday’s big gain, some suspicious market behavior has made me cautious as I saw wild gyration moves on some stocks triggered by program trading along with earning news. Despite big gain on their earnings by PCLN, EQIX, SBUX and WFM, more stocks got sold off from their big high opening on decent earning news, such as CRUS, ELLI, LNKD, SSYS, etc, along with the weakness in AAPL.

Some people wondered why IBD remained its market outlook as Market in Correction after Thursday’s big gain. What I saw are the lack of leadership; poor internals; the weak oversold bounce on Nasdaq. Friday’s bearish market action proved such evidence.

Friday SPY gapped up exactly to its 21-day and 50-day SMA line as its resistance level, also it was at the lower line of the rising wedge on my chart, and then it reversed down and got sold off to its day low into the close. The next level to watch is its 100-day SMA line posted on my chart.

The market darling $AAPL continued its bearish selloff on high volume and closed at its six-week low of 576.8, below its 200-day SMA for the first time since last November. Only 10 points away from its 78.6% retracement level of 566, AAPL at this level could be tough to initial a shorting position as each hard selloff is often followed by a powerful snapback before it hits upside resistance levels.

Remember: one day sunshine doesn’t make it a summer! I have been saying it since AAPL bounced to 682, then 650, and 633 since its downtrend started six weeks ago from 700ish. We should only trade it according to what its price action shows us.

I like what Taoism says: “It is better to stop short than fill to the brim; over sharpen the blade, and the edge will soon blunt.” It also applies to trading. 

During the correction when market is waiting for the presidential election result, and unstable price action and the churning behavior are seen on many stocks based on earning news, it’s best to be disciplines, nimble and be flexible.

Best luck on trading!

SPY Daily Chart with my Note:

AAPL Daily Chart with my Notes:

Posted in Market and Trading, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

How to Trade Tomorrow – My Thoughts

“To do Well in Short-Term Trading, it Takes Full-Time Attention and Dedication; It Takes Considerable Amount of Self-control to Trade Well” – Gerald Loeb

First of all, thank many of you for reading my last post with objective comments! I also appreciate the feed backs from the ones who told me about their positive experience owning Samsung phones.

After an unexpected two-extra-day long weekend due to Hurricane Sandy, we will be able to trade again Wednesday or tomorrow although it may not be a very normal trading session.

I sincerely wish that people in the affected area by Sandy could go back to normal life first before thinking abut trading. I like what Suzy Oman says: “People First, Then Money.” 

On Twitter, I can sense mixed emotions from people’s tweets in my stream: excitement, anxiety, puzzle, or calm.

In my previous post, I mentioned there was rotation going on: some beaten down tech stocks closed at the session highs on high volume or closed well off their recent lows, such as AMZN, EXPE, PCLN, MNST, CMG, etc; meanwhile, some other stocks got sold off from recent highs on strong volume seen in REGN, FB, YELP, etc.

Overall, there are very few stocks with good setups either to go short or long.

But there are some positive signs worth mentioning:

  • We are oversold while holding in the consolidation area for a few days; chasing performance could drive buying in equities; corporate buying has picked up according to some liquidity research I follow; oversold tech stocks look ready to turn around some; the put/call ratio has moved up, a contrarian sign against more downside.

In a mixed market like this, I would choose to trade SPY which presents the direction of broad market. In its consolidation area, SPY is swinging between 140.39 – 142.28. I usually like to get in to long at near its low trading range for cushion. But it’s better to let its price action tell me when to get in by following its intraday chart tomorrow.

Testing its 100-day line of 139.97 is possible, but if SPY breaks out the current trading range and closes above 142.3, I’ll plan to hold for a few days as a swing trade. Closing below the range means I would be stopped out of my long position. Shorting here at oversold condition seems more risky to me.

I usually follow a few trading rules when trading SPY (or other stocks):

  • Be patient and wait for the fist thirty minutes to let it settle down by electronic trading with likely wild swing at market open.
  • Initiate a position with smaller size with tight stops if I see a nice setup on its intraday chart; add if the trade works out.
  • Hold position longer if SPY can break out of its trading range up to its lower line of the rising wedge at 142.3 to 143+. But tomorrow could be a light trading volume day to provide little support for any directions. (Please check my SPY daily chart posted in my last blog or on under my handle: z8angela.)

Other candidates for trading on long side are: AAPL, AMZN, MA, WYNN, but I usually like to wait for setups on their intraday charts before entering.

Will AAPL gap down on the news about its top executives departure? If so, I expect some wild action with potential dip buying opportunity.

But make sure, be discipline and be flexible! Best luck on trading tomorrow!

Posted in Market and Trading, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Re thinking beyond the Technical and Earnings on APPLE

Keep Your Technical Systems Simple. Simplicity Breeds Elegance

I used fundamentals for nine years and got rich as a technician.– Marty Schwartz

 After seven sessions of the downside move since its reversal bar, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.5% last week and closed at 1,411.94. The Dow Jones industrials lost 1.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%. SPY closed at 141.30. The poor performances on major indexes for last week are blamed by disappointing earning reports and guidance from big tech companies, such as IBM, GOOG, AAPL, FFIV, AMZN, etc.

But noticeably, some beaten down stocks had powerful bullish reversals from their recent lows seen in AMZN, NFLX, MNST, CMG, etc.

GOOG remains in a trading range after being crushed sharply on earnings. Its chart pattern after such a hard sell-offs could use time to build a base before next big moves.

AMZN’s powerful reversal demonstrated how dangerous to short an oversold stock especially during its ripping-face-off bounce regardless of its lousy earnings. It closed at 238.24, right above its 100-day SMA. The wild price action on earnings makes me appreciate how important to be disciplined to follow Dan Zanger’s golden rules.

The negative sign I observed is that some stocks jumped up on their earnings pulled back hard from recent highs, such as REGN, FB, SWI, etc.. Rotation keeps going, making the market volatile. Trying to catch an absolute bottoms is not the best way to trade profitably during a correction for swing trading. 

Triggered by its weak earnings and lowered guidance, AAPL lost 5.54 points and closed at 604 last Friday on heavy volume with an intraday low of 591, only three points short of its 200-day line. To me, AAPL could retest its Friday low or even its 200-day SMA line before a decent bounce. Trading it well requires fast action to catch its intraday swings with proper entries or just wait for some constructive consolidation before aggressive buying.

Before calling AAPL another CSCO which lost its tech leadership a decade ago, I’d like to share some thoughts from my personal experience during this weekend.

Five weeks ago on 9/23/2012, I wrote a blog and posted my AAPL chart. I had notes pointing out its bearish reversal when it closed at 700. I also told a story that my sister and I tried to persuade a friend to update his flip cell phone to an iPhone. He is an old-fashioned gentleman who never used a smart phone, a computer or an email in his life before.

After getting my fourth iPhone – the iPhone 5, I felt I was less excited about having this new gadget in hands. I have been impressed by Samsung Galaxy phone’s appearance, and also heard good comments by some friends.  So my sister and I decided to get Samsung Galaxy S 3 smart phone instead of an iPhone for our dear friend.

Yesterday or Saturday late afternoon, we convinced him to go to his Verizon carrier office, and finally bought the new Samsung Galaxy S 3 phone for him. Since all my family members use only iPhones (not Samsung phones), we wanted to make sure to figure out how to navigate this Galaxy phone ourselves before teaching our friend how to use it.

Despite being a medical doctor, my sister has built her own computers, writes her own blogs, and is active on Chinese Twitter – SINA’s Weibo. I have had two Palm Treo smart phones and four iPhones, so I consider myself a smart phone expert.

But it was so frustrating when we tried to figure out how to make the new Samsung phone work properly!

–          It missed phones calls when we dialed my friend’s number right in front of him; the text messages failed despite trying to get help by dialing 611 or finding answer on Google; the sound quality is not as smooth; the ring tone options are limited to choose from; the fancy features are very hard to navigate; the phone heats up fast and runs battery quickly…

–          It is far more complicated than the iPhones we have. It’s definitely not going to work for our old-fashioned friend who needs only a simple phone to make calls!

Today or Sunday morning, after trying to reach our friend for hours, we finally got a phone call from him. He told us:” thank you both for the nice thoughts and the gift. I spent three hours until 3 am trying to play this new phone, but I got totally lost. I went to the Verizon branch office this morning and switched back to my old phone. All charges should be credited back to your credit card.”

My sister and I were so relieved! We realized that some people like to reach their friends with real sound of their voice, not by text messages or emails through gadgets or computers.  

–  A simple life filled with emotion is the way some old-fashioned people enjoy living. So just let it be!

Meanwhile, thinking back how excited I used to be when I got my first Palm Treo smart phone, then how VERY excited when I received my first iPhone, to how LITTLE enthusiastic when I have my iPhone 5 which is nearly perfectly designed and built, I realized that I,  like many, have higher expectations and become more critical about our nearly-perfect products.

–  Just like the life we live, the more we have, the more we forget to appreciate what we have!

Since I was little, I have always been into calligraphy, singing, dancing, and art; therefore, falling in love with Steve Job’s beautiful and innovative products like iPod, iPhones and iPads is so natural as they are much simpler, more intuitive, more user friendly and reliable.

So far, my own experience with the Samsung Galaxy phone makes me realize:  the iPhone by Apple is for me, and my love for Apple products should last for a long time.

The bottom line is: 

The competition among top smart phones made by Apple, Samsung, and HTC has been going on for a while, but it is how their products could strive to become better.

Each person enjoys certain type of phones according to his or her needs or styles.  However, Apple should keep majority of its loyal customer base and will also gain new ones.

Keep in mind: with lowered guidance for next quarter and very high demand for its products (A friend of mine sells only Apple products online and told me that people even pay him $200 more for the new iPhone 5 than its store prices.), it could easily beat the adjusted estimate numbers for next quarter. Watch how AAPL chart pattern is being developed in order to trade it well.

Always be Flexible with an open mind when trading!

AAPL YTD Daily Chart with Notes:

SPY Daily Chart with Notes:

Posted in Market and Trading, Trading and Life, Uncategorized | 6 Comments

Broad Markets Took Nose Dive Dragged by Hard Sell-off on Many Leaders

To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position! Take your losses quickly and don’t brood about them.” –Wisdom on Trading

Last Week, the U.S. market had attempted to bounce from Monday low to resistance levels, but it ended up with a bearish reversal on Thursday followed by a big sell-off on Option Expiration Friday, the volume spiking on all major indexes. The S&P 500 and the Dow both closed slightly under their 50-day moving averages. The Nasdaq was undercut below its 100-day line. The market tone is negative, considering how it was able to rally regardless of both good and bad economic or earning news previously.

Yes, this time it seems different!

The big sell-off was also spurred by the poor price reaction to lousy earning reports or guidance from many key companies including CMG, AXP, GOOG, IBM, INTC, MSFT, ALGN, MLNX, FTNT, CHKP, MCD, etc.  When so many leaders we watch closely are so damaged technically with big sell-offs, it would take some time to recover.

GOOG wiped out weeks of gain in just two days from its very disappointing earning report released a few hours earlier on Thursday. The SELL point near 760 I highlighted on my chart two weeks ago was retested briefly before it got dumped hard. AAPL, the darling of Wall Street, has been selling off for a month from $700 area. Now it got sold off hard by breaking down its bear flag I mentioned on its chart, volume very heavy. Will AAPL selloff be priced in enough for an oversold bounce? I think it all depends on how far it would fall. It is now well below 100-day line at $610.

I remember what Dan Zanger told us in his seminars: All stocks are bad unless they make your money. They are only trading vehicles, and never believe in your stocks. Unfortunately, I constantly see some traders trying to catch falling knives and to find reasons to be right.

But the stock market is the only Mr. Right. Prudent speculators never argue with the tape.

We should expect that the correction would happen a couple of times a year, so this time could be the second one since June: the oscillator is not oversold yet; it doesn’t feel the selling has reached an extreme level for the broad market; dip buyers are still seen everywhere.  

In fact, I was impressed by a few traders on Twitter, despite having disagreement over my reversal calls on Wednesday, who were able to switch their bias when the reality presented. Some silent traders did well, too when they focused on trading instead of tweeting too much during trading sessions.

One of reasons that many of us love trading is: In front of the market, the chance of making money is equal to everyone since there are no personal issues involved.

The best way to deal with current market is being open-minded and flexible, switch positions when the market tells us to do so and keep stops tight; trade with fewer shares when things are not sure. For option traders: play house money with partial winning chips.

Thanks for viewing and best luck on trading!

Here are some charts with my notes to share:

AAPL daily chart with notes (Friday closed at $609.84)

SPY daily chart with notes (Friday close at $143.39)

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Market Remains Weak Along with Financial Sell-off led by JPM

– The Will to WIn is Important, But the Will to Prepare is Vital.
– Expectation, not the News itself, is What Moves the Market.

 Last Friday U.S. market continued its weak trading session. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished in red with mild loss, also below their 50-day moving averages, but the Dow was slightly up.

Since the bearish reversal on Job Report Friday, the market has been in the selling mode led by so-called too-big-too-fail tech giant AAPL which is now 11% off from its all time high. It re tested its recent low which was hit last Tuesday, or its 100-day moving average around $625, but finished slightly up at $629.71 with a doji bar, an indecisive sign.

Meanwhile, other tech leaders GOOG, AMZN, and LNDK all joined the sell-offs. GOOG is now below its 21-day and was spurred its selling by some negative news last Friday. Such action should not be surprising since I mentioned on GOOG’s daily chart posted previously. LNKD pulled back and now under cut its 50-day MA despite being upgraded, a negative sign. Financial sector reversed lower led by JPM and WFC on their earning news. Selling on the news is not a good way to start an earning season.

However, a few stocks caught my attention with somewhat positive tones despite a weak market.

A few lagging stocks: MNST bounced up big with 5% gain after it was sold off on Thursday with a downgrade; BIDU was up 2 points and it seems now to build a long choppy base until its next earning report; FDX is still holding above its all major moving average lines. Leaders MA and V are still acting strong, above their 21-day ma lines.

The coming week will be option expiration time, and usually heavy volume would occur combined with earning reports by many leaders. During the correction, it’s always good to be defensive while trading small and being nimble.

It’s easy to get chopped around with rotation, bargain hunting and short covering going on in this kind of market. From my own trading experience last week, I was reminded again that it’s easier to trade better when tweeting/talking less, and trading with discipline.

Thanks for viewing and trade safe!

My AAPL One-year daily chart:

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Market Sell-off Continued While AAPL Stabilized along with FDX Bounce

“Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.” -Gerald Loeb

The U.S. market continued sell-off Wednesday since last Friday’s bearish reversal session on NFP report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both extended their losing streak for four days in-a-row, while the Dow has stretched its losing streak to three straight sessions. SPX at 1432.56 now is near its 50-day moving average.

Earning warnings or poor guidance from various companies keep putting pressure on many stocks and the broad market, such as AA, CMI, CVX, EW, TSO, ZNGA, etc.  October usually is a tricky month, especially after the four-month rally since June 4th bottom. Correction is usually expected.

To me, AAPL’s multi-day sell-off since its bearish reversal action on  9-21 has been foretelling what was going to happen to the broad market. However, as of yesterday, AAPL seems to have had a capitulation sell off on massive volume after hitting its intraday low of $623.54 or 11.55% off its year high at $705.  I, along with many traders, got lucky to have participated in trading such a risk-and-reward oversold bounce yesterday. Due to the weakness of broad market, I got out of my AAPL long position.

GOOG also has been sold off nearly 4%  from its year high 775 hit last Friday after a SELL signal mentioned in my last post. MA, another strong leader, reversed down as well after it hit all time high last Friday.

But, today I saw something interesting happened!

FDX, an economy telling stock, bounced up $4.41 to 89.99 or up 5.15% despite its warning many days ago; AAPL stabilized after the brutal sell off for over two weeks; COST, WMT, GNC, YUM, WMT all acted strongly, near or hit their year highs. Financial leaders GS and JPM are still holding up near recent highs.  All these signs mentioned seem like silver linings  to me. Pushing a SHORT button can be really dangerous here. Additionally, the oscillator is now at minus 47, near an oversold territory.

During the tricky time like this, it’s smart to sit tight with capital available for proper time to get in while watching how market price action will be developed. Always be observant, flexible, and objective!

Here is the AAPL intraday chart with my notes:

Thanks for viewing, and trade safe and well!

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Bearish Reversal on SPX and GOOG along with AAPL Selloff Last Friday

“Whenever the market does not act right or in the way it should, that is reason enough for you to change your opinion and change it immediately. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are” –Jesse Livermore

Last Friday the U. S. market initially embraced a benign Non-farm Job Report in the morning, but then it turned South in a hurry. SPX, NASDAQ, and numerous leaders including GOOG and MA all closed at their session lows on volume despite the Dow finishing in green. AAPL continued its multi-day losing streak and finished below its 50-day moving average 656 with the closing price at 652.59 on very heavy volume.

It’s interesting to see how rotation has been playing a big role to keep this rally going, and meanwhile, some leaders constantly showed suspicious price action when churning around with whipsawing sessions. Such behavior usually indicated uncertainty. With many companies issuing earning warnings and the new earning season kicking off next week by AA, wild action should be expected.

Unless you’re a fund manager who might be able to afford to buy and hold, we, as individual traders, should act upon when things became cautious. But we do have advantage over big guys by trading stocks actively to catch big swings on some stocks.

AAPL is such an example being a great trading vehicle once we learned how to take advantage of its big moves. Exactly two weeks ago when I pointed out its bearish close at 700 on heavy volume vs. GOOG’s much stronger chart, AAPL has been in a downtrend from its year high 705 before closing at its ten-day low. During its downside moves, it has had wild up-and-down swings of 20 plus points in every two sessions, but also nice trading opportunities for us vs. buy and hold.

When AAPL gapped down on volume Friday morning while market gapped up, in addition to its bearish close Thursday, it gave me a good idea for a shorting opportunity, and it worked out really well.  Remember: Stocks can go down faster than go up. Just look at the crazy daily charts of CMG and QCOR

After days of sell off, a stock could bounce off hard as if a big splash occurs by the heavy water fall. Violent moves usually happen. It’s why it’s prudent not to hold big short position over the weekend. On AAPL daily chart, I’m looking at 635-645 for an oversold bounce as that area is near 38.2% fib retracement of 637 from May low to Sept. high, and also near its April high of 644 as a potential support.

On GOOG daily chart, it just had another bearish shooting bar on heavier volume reversing from its fresh new high as it closed at$767.65 near the day low of 765. To me, it should be a confirmed SELL signal for short-term. Chasing here would mean tremendous risk. Breaking its bearish rising pennant is expected.

Market can be wild and volatile, especially when triggered by HFT; thus, we should be careful with trading size and the entry levels while taking advantage of the price swings. Always be calm and act upon while waiting for good trading opportunities. Having a trading plan and cutting loss quickly can also help!

Here are my AAPL two-day-5-min intraday chart and GOOG daily chart with notes:

Trade safe and well, and thanks for viewing!

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